Friday, November 28, 2014
LDS Growth Predictions for Nigeria
Although the Church has globally posted steady gains in nominal church membership over the past 15 years, there has been a significant decline in the percentage growth rate for the number of active members as measured by increases in congregations (wards and branches) and organizations (stakes and districts). The Church has experienced some of its most dramatic declines in growth rates within Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines, and Latin American nations with at least 50,000 members.
One country where the Church has experienced steady increases in congregations and organizations during this period has been Nigeria. Within the past decade the number of congregations increased from 237 to 413, the number of stakes increased from 14 to 26, and the number of districts increased from 11 to 20. The Church in 2014 alone has thus far experienced a net increase of 35 congregations; a nine percent increase within less than 12 months. The Church in Nigeria has a self-sufficient full-time missionary force staffed by members serving missions from Nigeria and surrounding nations. The Church has also implemented aggressive church planting tactics in many of the most populous cities. This has resulted in accelerated membership and congregational growth, and improvements in achieving "real growth" as measured by increases in active membership, the organization of additional stakes, and increasing numbers of members serving full-time missions.
I have created a map forecasting LDS stake and district growth in Nigeria for the next decade. I estimate that there may be as may as 69 stakes and 17 districts in Nigeria by 2025 based on recent growth trends. It is likely that there will be many more districts by 2025. Predicting where additional districts will be organized is extremely challenging as the organization of new districts in Nigeria has depended on decisions made by mission and area leaders to open cities to missionary work or redistrict outlying areas of stakes into districts.
One country where the Church has experienced steady increases in congregations and organizations during this period has been Nigeria. Within the past decade the number of congregations increased from 237 to 413, the number of stakes increased from 14 to 26, and the number of districts increased from 11 to 20. The Church in 2014 alone has thus far experienced a net increase of 35 congregations; a nine percent increase within less than 12 months. The Church in Nigeria has a self-sufficient full-time missionary force staffed by members serving missions from Nigeria and surrounding nations. The Church has also implemented aggressive church planting tactics in many of the most populous cities. This has resulted in accelerated membership and congregational growth, and improvements in achieving "real growth" as measured by increases in active membership, the organization of additional stakes, and increasing numbers of members serving full-time missions.
I have created a map forecasting LDS stake and district growth in Nigeria for the next decade. I estimate that there may be as may as 69 stakes and 17 districts in Nigeria by 2025 based on recent growth trends. It is likely that there will be many more districts by 2025. Predicting where additional districts will be organized is extremely challenging as the organization of new districts in Nigeria has depended on decisions made by mission and area leaders to open cities to missionary work or redistrict outlying areas of stakes into districts.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Potential Mission Districts
I have provided an updated list of mission districts which I think are
likely to be organized in the next couple years. Mission districts are
analogous to stakes as they administer multiple branches (usually three
to ten) but they have less independence in church administration and
leadership than stakes. The creation of mission districts signals
progress in church growth as it is an important step for the Church to
establish a "center of strength" in a new location from a handful of
mission branches into a more organized entity which has potential to
become a stake. The creation of a district from branches that were
previously assigned to no stake or district but reported directly to the
mission or area president suggests maturation in local leadership which
can provide sufficient manpower and quality leaders to staff both
branch and district callings.
Potential new districts listed below were identified based on recent congregational growth trends, missionary reports on the number of convert baptisms and activity rates, and distance and location from other nearby stakes and districts. Previous lists are available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013. Locations where there are fewer than three branches are included if there is a high likelihood that additional branches will be organized within the near future in order for a district to be organized.
Like other administrative and congregational units, the creation of districts is approved by the First Presidency. Information used to compile this list does not contain any unauthorized information and I take full responsibility for this work.
AFRICA
Potential new districts listed below were identified based on recent congregational growth trends, missionary reports on the number of convert baptisms and activity rates, and distance and location from other nearby stakes and districts. Previous lists are available for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013. Locations where there are fewer than three branches are included if there is a high likelihood that additional branches will be organized within the near future in order for a district to be organized.
Like other administrative and congregational units, the creation of districts is approved by the First Presidency. Information used to compile this list does not contain any unauthorized information and I take full responsibility for this work.
AFRICA
- Asamang Ghana (4) [Agona, Asamang, Effiduasi, and Mampong Branches - all currently assigned to the Ghana Kumasi Mission]
- Atta Nigeria (6) [Atta, Amaimo, Amakohia, Ogwa, Orlu, and Umundugba Branches - all currently administered by the Owerri Nigeria Stake]
- Axim Ghana (3) [Agona Nkwanta, Axim, and Nkroful Branches - all currently administered by the Ghana Cape Coast Mission]
- Bouafle Cote d'Ivoire (3) [Agbonou, Bouafle, and Koko Branches - all currently assigned to the Yamoussoukro Cote d'Ivoire District]
- Bujumbura Burundi (5) [Bujumbura 1st, Bujumbura 2nd, Bujumbura 3rd, Kalundu, and Uvira Branches - all currently administered by the DR Congo Lubumbashi Mission]
- Daloa Cote d'Ivoire (6) [Gbeuliville, Kennedy, Lobia, Marrais, Orly, and Tazibouo Branches - all currently assigned to the Yamoussoukro Cote d'Ivoire District]
- Divo Cote d'Ivoire (3) [Divo, Konankro, and Plateau Branches - all currently assigned to the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission]
- Douala Cameron (2) [Bonaberri and Douala Branches - both currently assigned to the Republic of Congo Brazzaville Mission]
- Fianarantsoa Madagascar (2) [Fianarantsoa and Tsianolondroa Branches - both currently administered by the Madagascar Antananarivo Mission]
- Fort Dauphin Madagascar (2) [Fort Dauphin and Tanambao Branches - both currently administered by the Madagascar Antananarivo Mission]
- Francistown Botswana (3) [Francistown, Gerald, and Monarch Branches- all currently administered by the Botswana/Namibia Mission]
- Gulu Uganda (2) [Bar Dege and Gulu Branches and the Kitgum Group - all currently administered by the Uganda Kampala Mission]
- Kitale Kenya (5) [Kitale, Mautuma, Misikhu, Naitiri, and Sikhendu Branches - all currently administered by the Eldoret Kenya District]
- Klerksdorp South Africa (3) [Jouberton, Klerksdorp, and Potchefstroom Branches - all currently assigned to the South Africa Johannesburg Mission]
- Lilongwe Malawi (4) [Kalambo, Kauma 1st, Kauma 2nd, and Lilongwe Branches - all currently administered by the Zambia Lusaka Mission]
- Lira Uganda (2) [Adyel and Lira Branches - both administered by the Uganda Kampala Mission]
- Marondera Zimbabawe (2) [Dombotombo and Marondera Branches - both administered by the Zimbabwe Harare Mission]
- Makeni Sierra Leone (2) [Makama and Teko Road Branches - both administered by the Sierra Leone Freetown Mission]
- Meagui Cote d'Ivoire (3) [Meagui 1st, Meagui 2nd, and Soubre Branches - all assigned to the Cote d'Ivoire Abidjan West Mission]
- Mombasa Kenya (3) [Bamburi, Changamwe, and Mombasa Branches - all currently administered by the Kenya Nairobi Mission]
- Nelspruit South Africa (2) [KaNyamazane and Nelspruit Branches - both currently assigned to the South Africa Johannesburg Misson]
- Ngandajika DR Congo (2) [Ngandajika and Tshioji Branches - both currently administered by the Luputa DR Congo Stake]
- Nsukka Nigeria (2) [Nsukka and Obollo-Afor Branches - both administered by the Nigeria Enugu Mission]
- Ondo Nigeria (3) [Adeyemi College Road, Ondo, and Yaba Branches - all currently assigned to the Nigeria Benin City Mission]
- Pointe-Noire Republic of Congo (4) [Aeroporto, Loandjili, Mpaka, and Pointe-Noire Branches - all currently administered by the DR Congo Kinshasa Mission]
- Rwanda Kigali (3) [Kigali 1st, Kigali 2nd, and Kigali 3rd Branches - all currently administered by the Uganda Kampala Mission]
- Tamale Ghana (2) [Education Ridge and Vitin Branches and possibly one or two member groups - all currently assigned to the Ghana Kumasi Mission]
- Techiman Ghana (4) [Dwumoh, Kenten, Krobo, and Vatican Branches - all currently assigned to the Ghana Kumasi Mission]
- Macau (3) [Macau 1st, Macau 2nd (English), Macau 3rd Branches - all pertain to the China Hong Kong Mission]
- Siem Reap Cambodia (2) [Siem Reap 1st and Siem Reap 2nd Branches - both currently administered by the Cambodia Phnom Penh Mission]
- Tagudin Philippines (4) [Balaoan, Bangar, Luna, and Tagudin Branches - branches currently assigned to either the Candon Phillipines or San Fernando Philippines Stakes]
- Barreiras Brazil (3) [Barreiras 1st, Barreiras 2nd, and Luis Eduardo Magalhaes Branches - all branches currently assigned to the Brazil Salvador South Mission]
- Cruzeiro do Sul Brazil (3) [Cruzeiro do Sul, Formoso, and Remanso Branches - all branches currently assigned to the Brazil Manaus Mission]
- Marabá Brazil (3) [Canaã dos Carajás, Marabá, and Parauapebas Branches - all currently assigned to the Brazil Belem Mission]
- Tefé Brazil (3) [Coari, Jutaí, and Tefé Branches - all currently assigned to the Brazil Manaus Mission]
- Aoba Vanuatu (6) [Apopo, Lobori, Lolotinge, Lovutialao, Navuti, and Redcliff Branches - all currently assigned to the Luganville Vanuatu District]
Monday, November 24, 2014
Case Studies on LDS Growth in Indonesia
As part of work I provide for The Cumorah Foundation (cumorah.com), I have recently completed a series of case study articles that examine LDS growth in Indonesia. Indonesia has over a quarter of a billion people and has had an LDS missionary presence for over four decades. However, the Church has experienced slow growth within the past three decades and maintains a minimal presence in the country. These case study articles analyze past LDS growth trends in the country and explore opportunities for outreach expansion.
I particularly enjoyed working on this set of case studies. I hope that these case studies will educate interested readers and motivate members to do what they can to help expand the Church's presence in Indonesia.
I particularly enjoyed working on this set of case studies. I hope that these case studies will educate interested readers and motivate members to do what they can to help expand the Church's presence in Indonesia.
- Analysis of LDS Growth in Java, Indonesia
- Prospective LDS Outreach in Kalimantan, Indonesia
- Prospective LDS Outreach in Papua Province, Indonesia
- Prospective LDS Outreach Expansion in Sulawesi, Indonesia
- Prospective LDS Outreach Expansion in Sumatra, Indonesia
- Prospective LDS Outreach in the Lesser Sunda (Bali and Nusa Tenggara) Islands and the Maluku (Moluccas) Islands in Indonesia
Friday, November 21, 2014
New Stakes Created in Bahrain, Nigeria, and Utah
Bahrain
On November 14th, the Church organized its second stake in the Middle East. The Manama Bahrain Stake was organized from the Manama Bahrain District and the Abu Dhabi Stake and includes the following two congregations in non-sensitive countries: the Kuwait Ward and the Bahrain Branch. The new stake likely has four or more wards in Saudi Arabia. The Church does not report the number and location of its congregations in Saudi Arabia due to its sensitive presence in the country. The Church in the Arabian Peninsula has experienced steady membership and congregational growth within the past decade due to Latter-day Saints relocating to the region for employment purposes. The Church originally divided the Abu Dhabi Stake (originally called the Manama Bahrain Stake and before that the Desert Springs Stake) in 2011 to create the Manama Bahrain District.
Nigeria
On November 16th, the Church organized a new stake in the cultural region of southwestern Nigeria known as "Yorubaland." The Abeokuta Nigeria Stake was organized from the Abeokuta Nigeria District and includes the following eight wards: the Ibara, Idi-Aba, Ilewo-Orile, Ita-Oshin, Kuto, Lafenwa, Obantoko, and Odeda Wards. The new stake becomes the Church's second stake to operate within southwestern Nigeria outside of Lagos (the first stake in southwestern Nigeria outside of Lagos was organized in Ibadan last June). The Abeokuta Nigeria District was originally organized in 1993.
There are now 26 stakes and 20 districts in Nigeria.
Utah
On November 16th, the Church organized a new stake in Utah. The Kaysville Utah Deseret Mills Stake was organized from the Kaysville Utah West Stake and includes the following eight wards: the Barnes Park, Burton, Country Mill, Deseret, Francis Peak (Spanish), Kays, Mill Shadow, and Old Mill Wards.
There are now 574 stakes and one district in Utah
On November 14th, the Church organized its second stake in the Middle East. The Manama Bahrain Stake was organized from the Manama Bahrain District and the Abu Dhabi Stake and includes the following two congregations in non-sensitive countries: the Kuwait Ward and the Bahrain Branch. The new stake likely has four or more wards in Saudi Arabia. The Church does not report the number and location of its congregations in Saudi Arabia due to its sensitive presence in the country. The Church in the Arabian Peninsula has experienced steady membership and congregational growth within the past decade due to Latter-day Saints relocating to the region for employment purposes. The Church originally divided the Abu Dhabi Stake (originally called the Manama Bahrain Stake and before that the Desert Springs Stake) in 2011 to create the Manama Bahrain District.
Nigeria
On November 16th, the Church organized a new stake in the cultural region of southwestern Nigeria known as "Yorubaland." The Abeokuta Nigeria Stake was organized from the Abeokuta Nigeria District and includes the following eight wards: the Ibara, Idi-Aba, Ilewo-Orile, Ita-Oshin, Kuto, Lafenwa, Obantoko, and Odeda Wards. The new stake becomes the Church's second stake to operate within southwestern Nigeria outside of Lagos (the first stake in southwestern Nigeria outside of Lagos was organized in Ibadan last June). The Abeokuta Nigeria District was originally organized in 1993.
There are now 26 stakes and 20 districts in Nigeria.
Utah
On November 16th, the Church organized a new stake in Utah. The Kaysville Utah Deseret Mills Stake was organized from the Kaysville Utah West Stake and includes the following eight wards: the Barnes Park, Burton, Country Mill, Deseret, Francis Peak (Spanish), Kays, Mill Shadow, and Old Mill Wards.
There are now 574 stakes and one district in Utah
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
LDS Growth Accelerating in California
The Church in California has begun to experience accelerating congregational growth for the first time in a decade. So far in 2013 and 2014, the Church has reported a net increase of 20 congregations (+21 wards, -1 branch) in California. The Church reported a net increase of seven congregations in 2013 and a net increase of 13 congregations for 2014. The last time the Church in California experienced as large of a net increase in the number of congregations occurred in 2004 when there was a net increase of 40 congregations (12 wards, 28 branches). The growth the Church in California has experienced in 2013 and 2014 has been more impressive than the growth experienced in 2004 as the majority of congregations organized in 2004 were young single adult (YSA) branches whereas in the majority of congregations organized in 2013 and 2014 have been English-speaking family wards. The Church has also organized many non-English speaking wards in California so far in 2014, including several Spanish-speaking wards and branches, a new Mandarin Chinese-speaking branch in Pasadena, and a new Hmong-speaking branch in Yuba City.
This acceleration in congregational growth in California is a surprising LDS growth development as the Church has experienced essentially stagnant membership and congregational growth for over two decades. Stagnant growth has primarily occurred due to members moving outside of the state. Recent congregational growth trends in 2014 may indicate a reduction in the number of active members moving away from the state, improvements in member activity rates, and increases in the numbers of converts joining the Church and remaining active.
The Church in California continues to have many challenges. The Church continues to operate fewer wards and branches than it did in the mid-2000s when there were as many as 1,386 congregations (compared to 1,368 at present). The Church in California has also gone through multiple cycles of organizing and consolidating congregations based on patterns of active membership moving away from the state. For example, the Church reported congregational growth until 1993 when a high of 1,353 congregations was reached, but consolidated many wards and branches until 1997 when there were 1,273 congregations reported. Congregational growth rebounded to reach a new high of 1,386 in 2004 and 2005, but declined to 1,348 in 2011 and 2012. Recent history suggests that the Church in California may continue to experience oscillations in net increases and declines in congregational growth based on the rate that members move away from the state, the number of converts who join the Church and remain active, and fluctuations in member activity rates.
Click here to access the state statistical profile for California on cumorah.com.
This acceleration in congregational growth in California is a surprising LDS growth development as the Church has experienced essentially stagnant membership and congregational growth for over two decades. Stagnant growth has primarily occurred due to members moving outside of the state. Recent congregational growth trends in 2014 may indicate a reduction in the number of active members moving away from the state, improvements in member activity rates, and increases in the numbers of converts joining the Church and remaining active.
The Church in California continues to have many challenges. The Church continues to operate fewer wards and branches than it did in the mid-2000s when there were as many as 1,386 congregations (compared to 1,368 at present). The Church in California has also gone through multiple cycles of organizing and consolidating congregations based on patterns of active membership moving away from the state. For example, the Church reported congregational growth until 1993 when a high of 1,353 congregations was reached, but consolidated many wards and branches until 1997 when there were 1,273 congregations reported. Congregational growth rebounded to reach a new high of 1,386 in 2004 and 2005, but declined to 1,348 in 2011 and 2012. Recent history suggests that the Church in California may continue to experience oscillations in net increases and declines in congregational growth based on the rate that members move away from the state, the number of converts who join the Church and remain active, and fluctuations in member activity rates.
Click here to access the state statistical profile for California on cumorah.com.
Monday, November 17, 2014
New Stakes Created in Florida and Ghana
Florida
On November 9th, the Church created a new stake in the Orlando area. The Lake Mary Florida Stake was organized from a division of the Orlando Florida Stake and includes the following six wards: the College Park YSA, Lake Mary, Longwood, Oviedo, Sanford, and Tuskawilla Wards. There are now five stakes in the Orlando metropolitan area and 28 stakes in Florida
Ghana
On November 9th, the Church created a new stake in the Accra metropolitan area. The Ashaiman Ghana Stake was organized from a division of the Tema Ghana Stake and includes the following seven wards and two branches: the Adjei Kojo, Ashaiman, Bethlehem, Kpone, Lebanon, Sun City, and Zenu Wards, and the Dawenyha and Michel Camp Branches. There are now seven stakes in the Accra metropolitan area.
The Church in Ghana currently reports 13 stakes and nine districts.
On November 9th, the Church created a new stake in the Orlando area. The Lake Mary Florida Stake was organized from a division of the Orlando Florida Stake and includes the following six wards: the College Park YSA, Lake Mary, Longwood, Oviedo, Sanford, and Tuskawilla Wards. There are now five stakes in the Orlando metropolitan area and 28 stakes in Florida
Ghana
On November 9th, the Church created a new stake in the Accra metropolitan area. The Ashaiman Ghana Stake was organized from a division of the Tema Ghana Stake and includes the following seven wards and two branches: the Adjei Kojo, Ashaiman, Bethlehem, Kpone, Lebanon, Sun City, and Zenu Wards, and the Dawenyha and Michel Camp Branches. There are now seven stakes in the Accra metropolitan area.
The Church in Ghana currently reports 13 stakes and nine districts.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
New Stake in Cote d'Ivoire; District Discontinued in Brazil
Cote d'Ivoire
Last Sunday, the Church organized its seventh stake in Abidjan. The Abobo Cote d'Ivoire East Stake was organized from a division of the Abobo Cote d'Ivoire Stake and includes the following eight wards: the Abobo, Agbekoi, Akeikoi 1st, Akeikoi 2nd, Ile Verte, M'Ponon, Plaque, and Quatre Etages Wards. The Abobo Cote d'Ivoire Stake experienced unprecedented congregational growth in 2014 as the number of congregations within the original stake mushroomed from eight wards to 15 wards and one branch. Three additional stakes in the Abidjan area appear close to dividing including the Abidjan Cote d'Ivoire Toit Rouge Stake (11 wards), Cocody Cote d'Ivoire Stake (10 wards, 1 branch), and the Port Bouet Cote d'Ivoire Stake (11 wards, 1 branch).
There are now seven stakes and three districts in Cote d'Ivoire.
Brazil
The Church recently discontinued the Quaraí Brazil District. The former district was located in Rio Grande do Sul State on the border with Uruguay. The district has experienced rapid congregational decline within the past five years as the number of branches has declined from five to two. The retained branches now pertain to the Artigas Uruguay Stake and will likely become wards as branches have been consolidate to increase the number of active members in each congregation.
There are now 252 stakes and 39 districts in Brazil
Last Sunday, the Church organized its seventh stake in Abidjan. The Abobo Cote d'Ivoire East Stake was organized from a division of the Abobo Cote d'Ivoire Stake and includes the following eight wards: the Abobo, Agbekoi, Akeikoi 1st, Akeikoi 2nd, Ile Verte, M'Ponon, Plaque, and Quatre Etages Wards. The Abobo Cote d'Ivoire Stake experienced unprecedented congregational growth in 2014 as the number of congregations within the original stake mushroomed from eight wards to 15 wards and one branch. Three additional stakes in the Abidjan area appear close to dividing including the Abidjan Cote d'Ivoire Toit Rouge Stake (11 wards), Cocody Cote d'Ivoire Stake (10 wards, 1 branch), and the Port Bouet Cote d'Ivoire Stake (11 wards, 1 branch).
There are now seven stakes and three districts in Cote d'Ivoire.
Brazil
The Church recently discontinued the Quaraí Brazil District. The former district was located in Rio Grande do Sul State on the border with Uruguay. The district has experienced rapid congregational decline within the past five years as the number of branches has declined from five to two. The retained branches now pertain to the Artigas Uruguay Stake and will likely become wards as branches have been consolidate to increase the number of active members in each congregation.
There are now 252 stakes and 39 districts in Brazil
Thursday, November 6, 2014
New Stakes Created in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma
Within the past couple weeks, the Church has undergone a massive realignment of stakes within Arkansas, southwestern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma. Three new stakes were created as a result of this realignment.
The Bartlesville Oklahoma Stake was organized from the Tulsa Oklahoma and Tulsa Oklahoma East Stakes and includes the following nine wards and two branches: the Bartlesville 1st, Bartlesville 2nd, Bartlesville 3rd, Claremore, Cleveland, Elm Creek, Independence, Owasso, and Ranch Creek Wards, and the Pawhuska and Skiatook Branches. There are now eight stakes in Oklahoma.
The Bentonville Arkansas Stake was organized from the Rogers Arkansas Stake and includes the following seven wards: the Bella Vista, Bentonville 1st, Bentonville 2nd, Centerton, Central Park, Elm Tree, and Grove Wards. There are now seven stakes in Arkansas.
The Monett Missouri Stake was organized from the Joplin Missouri and Springfield Missouri South Stakes and includes the following five wards and two branches: the Aurora, Carthage, Granby, Monett, and Stockton Wards, and the Cassville and Joplin YSA Branches. There are now 16 stakes in Missouri.
The Bartlesville Oklahoma Stake was organized from the Tulsa Oklahoma and Tulsa Oklahoma East Stakes and includes the following nine wards and two branches: the Bartlesville 1st, Bartlesville 2nd, Bartlesville 3rd, Claremore, Cleveland, Elm Creek, Independence, Owasso, and Ranch Creek Wards, and the Pawhuska and Skiatook Branches. There are now eight stakes in Oklahoma.
The Bentonville Arkansas Stake was organized from the Rogers Arkansas Stake and includes the following seven wards: the Bella Vista, Bentonville 1st, Bentonville 2nd, Centerton, Central Park, Elm Tree, and Grove Wards. There are now seven stakes in Arkansas.
The Monett Missouri Stake was organized from the Joplin Missouri and Springfield Missouri South Stakes and includes the following five wards and two branches: the Aurora, Carthage, Granby, Monett, and Stockton Wards, and the Cassville and Joplin YSA Branches. There are now 16 stakes in Missouri.