Missionary Developments From Recent 2023 New Mission Presidents Training Seminar

The Church News recently published articles regarding comments Elder Cook of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles made during the recent 2023 New Mission President seminar in regard to recent missionary developments in the global Church. These included:

• The number of full-time, proselytizing missionaries serving worldwide increasing from 57,000 in April 2022 to 67,800 in early June 2023 (click here for article). This time frame was provided because President Nelson reemphasized the need for young men to serve full-time missions in April 2022 in General Conference. The last time the Church had this many members serving full-time missions was in 2016 when there were 70,946 full-time missionaries serving at the end of the year (which was at the tail-end of the double-cohort of full-time missionaries caused by the lowering of the minimum age for missionary service). There were approximately 67,000 or fewer full-time missionaries serving between 2017 and 2022.
  
• The number of full-time, proselytizing missionaries serving worldwide is anticipated to reach as high as 72,000 by the end of 2023 (click here for article). This increase has occurred even though there is a smaller demographic of mission-aged young adults in the Church (which is supported by historical children-of-record annual increase numbers, which did not surpass 100,000 until 2008), suggesting an increasing percentage of young single adults serving full-time missions. Although it is unclear what the current percentage of young men serving full-time missions is, "Researchers found that in the early 1940s approximately five percent of young men served missions and that this statistic increased to 20% in the late 1940s and 30% in the early 1960s. Between the early 1960s and early 1980s the percentage of young men serving missions varied from 25-35% and was 32% in 1981 (click here for reference). 
• Recently, the number of weekly mission applications received that require processing by apostles for mission assignment has increased from approximately 150-200 to up to 300. Typically, two apostles complete the weekly processing and assignment of mission applications. However, as many as four apostles have been required to complete this weekly task due to the influx in applications (click here for article).
  
• Convert baptisms for the worldwide Church were up 25% during the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022 (click here for article). If this rate continues for the rest of the year (i.e., if there are 25% more convert baptisms in 2023 compared to 2022), there would be 265,215 convert baptisms for the year - the highest reported by the Church since 2014 when there were 296,803 convert baptisms.
  

It is unclear what particular age/gender demographics or world regions are driving recent increases in full-time missionaries serving and higher numbers of convert baptisms than what has been seen in recent years. It will likely take years before we begin to see congregational growth rates and the creation of new stakes accelerating if these recent trends are continued. The increase in convert baptisms is unsurprising given missions have returned to "business as usual" with strategies that often result in the greatest growth of the Church, especially with the opening of previously unreached cities to proselytism and creating new congregations in these locations (which primarily occurs in Africa, the Philippines, and Latin America). Moreover, increases in full-time missionaries serving should produce higher numbers of convert baptisms. However, the most interesting and positive development with these few statistics shared by Elder Cook is that the percentage of young single adults serving full-time missions appears to be increasing - something that could have some major long-term impacts on general church growth trends, particularly those in regard to natural increase. Moreover, if these trends are sustained, we will likely see many new missions organized in 2024 to help accommodate this increase, and it appears most likely that these mission resources will be allocated to more productive areas rather than creation new missions in less productive areas with greater preexisting Church infrastructure (which occurred in many areas of the world in 2013 when huge increases in the numbers of full-time missionaries serving required a fast solution to find a place to put them all).